Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Colombia hostages

The Colombia hostage release situation is one of the stranger stories I’ve seen in a while. The FARC stopped the operation, saying the Colombian government was doing new military operations, which the government denies. Now Alvaro Uribe says the FARC doesn’t even have the child Emanuel (and Hugo Chávez had named the operation after him—I see variations in the spelling that I assume reflect English vs. Spanish) but had given him up in 2005.

So far, Chávez has remained fairly subdued, blaming Uribe personally but also saying that if DNA tests matched, then the FARC would have serious explaining to do. In fact, they would need to explain why they were offering up a hostage they did not have—the Colombian government argues that given decentralized command, the members of the FARC who offered him may not have known he was already freed.

The entire situation is just depressing. Kidnapping is bad enough, but dangling people out in front of their relatives and then yanking them back is sickening.

[Trivia note: now the I get a “forbidden access” message when I try to go to the FARC’s website.]

41 comments:

Anonymous,  8:27 AM  

The use of this tragedy for personal political gain is also deplorable.

A unilateral FARC/Venezuela approach is not viable. This has to be negotiated by the interested parties: FARC/Colombia and a credible third.

Greg Weeks 10:20 AM  

I'm not so sure that we yet know what is viable--my own feeling is that Chavez was not relevant to the outcome.

Anonymous,  11:10 AM  

You are right. This is a complex issue and no response is for sure.

To be a mediator you have to be trusted by all negotiators. Otherwise you are just another player. Chavez chose to put himself next to the FARC, therefore he can't facilitate this process.

There will be negotiations anyways. The guerrilla needs a way out from it anacronichal struggle and they will find it, eventually. At what price, that's the question.

Justin Delacour 11:21 AM  

A unilateral FARC/Venezuela approach is not viable. This has to be negotiated by the interested parties: FARC/Colombia and a credible third.

You haven't explained why Venezuela isn't a "credible third"? What's that mean? Uribe's the one who brought in Chavez in the first place, and I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that any other Latin American leader would be more capable of negotiating a hostage release.

Why do you think the hostages' families support Chavez's continued role as mediator?

Justin Delacour 11:28 AM  

The entire situation is just depressing. Kidnapping is bad enough, but dangling people out in front of their relatives and then yanking them back is sickening.

Indeed, but it's also pretty shady that Uribe insisted on going to the staging area for the hostage transfer when he knew darn well that the FARC had pledged that it would not release the hostages to his government. I don't think Uribe wanted the hostage release to succeed.

Anonymous,  3:24 PM  

"Why do you think the hostages' families support Chavez's continued role as mediator?"

Because he is a FARC allied. The very same reason why he can't be a mediator.

You do understand that a mediator has to be neutral and trusted by both parts, do you?

Anonymous,  3:26 PM  

"I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that any other Latin American leader would be more capable of negotiating a hostage release."
Man, after this fiasco a group of boy scouts would do better.

Greg Weeks 3:50 PM  

Chavez is potentially a liability if he creates an incentive for Uribe to interfere, but obviously that is not Chavez's fault (and we do not know whether that happened in this case).

I wonder if anyone exists who would be trusted by both sides.

Justin Delacour 4:00 PM  

Because he is a FARC allied. The very same reason why he can't be a mediator.

You do understand that a mediator has to be neutral and trusted by both parts, do you?


No, Chavez is not FARC-allied, but the FARC do seem to respect his politics, so he is one of the few leaders in the region they're willing to negotiate with.

And he's no longer a mediator. Chavez need not be friendly with Uribe for the FARC to decide to release hostages to his government.

The fact of the matter, at this point, is that the FARC won't negotiate with anybody who's friendly with Uribe.

So what you're basically saying is that you don't want a Chavez-brokered hostage release because that would improve Chavez's image at the expense of Uribe's. You might as well be honest about what you're saying.

Anonymous,  4:41 PM  

Camarada, you have a prolific imagination.

Anonymous,  4:41 PM  

Chavez was using this episode purely for political gain. FARC releases the hostages and everyone (Kirchner, Oliver Stone, Harry Belafonte, and whatever other relics Hugo wants to dig up) give ol' Hugo a pat on the back. However, as wise as Chavez is most of the time, even he did not realize that you can't negotiate with terrorists. This is an organization that uses kidnapping as a political tool. How can "leaders" like FARC be trusted to make a deal? As much as Chavez dislikes Uribe and his political allies, I think this was a gross miscalculation on the part of Chavez. The downside outweighs the upside.

As for the point of why the hostage families support Chavez being involved, of course they do...what do they have to lose? They would support Hitler being involved if it meant they would get to see their families again.

Uribe also has nothing to lose by involving Chavez. Best case: FARC releases the hostages, Uribe looks like a compromising leader, and the families (and Colombian people) are happy. The last time I looked, Chavez can't run for election in Colombia, and Uribe's term limit is up, so he can't run either, so Chavez's would-be political gain is not too relevant for Uribe. Worst case: Uribe does not get blamed for a failed mission, and he still retains his hard line against FARC.

Anonymous,  4:45 PM  

Alternative brokers:
-The French government (alreadu involved and volunteered to do so).
-Brazil (already involved and border country).
-Chile (Bachelet is certainly more neutral).

And the usual suspects, which have been involved anyways:
Vatican, Switzerland.

Justin Delacour 5:27 PM  

Alternative brokers:
-The French government (alreadu involved and volunteered to do so).
-Brazil (already involved and border country).
-Chile (Bachelet is certainly more neutral).


Bachelet? You think the FARC are going to negotiate with Bachelet?

I think you're the one with a prolific imagination.

Justin Delacour 5:28 PM  
This comment has been removed by the author.
Justin Delacour 6:30 PM  
This comment has been removed by the author.
Justin Delacour 6:31 PM  

Last I checked, France's conservative government also thinks Chavez is still the best guy to negotiate with the FARC.

Bosque 7:40 PM  

The outcome is shameful! FARC screwed themselves ... who will believe them now?

Neither Chavez nor Uribe look bad in this instance ... only FARC who made the promise.

Anonymous,  8:18 PM  

To Justin's point. Oliver Stone could do something there, with a little help from Penn. Yes, Chavez and stars, that will save Colombia.

Justin Delacour 9:37 PM  

To Justin's point. Oliver Stone could do something there, with a little help from Penn. Yes, Chavez and stars, that will save Colombia.

No, that's not what I said. What I said was that nobody's come up with a better idea about how to negotiate a hostage release. Maybe it's not even possible to negotiate such a release at this point, but until somebody comes up with a better idea about how to attempt it, there's little point in idle chatter about completely unrealistic proposals (like having Bachelet mediate).

Anonymous,  9:50 PM  

Emanuel XXII (In the Jungle)
with Naomi Campbell and Sean Penn
Directed by Oliver Stone
Executive Producer Hugo Chavez

Anonymous,  12:47 AM  

The ADN test to Emanuel was positive. Says RCN.

I supposem, if confirmed, that's good news for the grandparents.

I regret the way Uribe handled this. He shouldn't have made this public yet.

As for Chavez. Well, if confirmed this is a mortal blow for his reputation.

Anonymous,  12:50 AM  

Here, the story.
http://www.canalcaracol.com/
noticia_interna.asp

Anonymous,  8:25 AM  

Where are all the Chavez apologists now? I think Uribe played him like a fiddle on this episode.

Greg Weeks 8:39 AM  

Uribe didn't play anyone. The FARC screwed up, then reneged.

Anonymous,  9:50 AM  

I don't agree. I would not be surprised if it comes out in the coming weeks and months that Uribe knew all along that Emmanuel was the foster child, and used this moment to release that information. It just seems highly coincidental to me that they figured out on the same day that the hostage deal fell apart that the kid was in a foster home in Bogota?

The FARC also screwed up in not knowing who they had in custody. And Chavez royally screwed up by a) believing what the FARC told him and b) gathering the international press and several foreign dignitaries to wait for the relase which never happened.

As I said previously, I think Uribe comes out of this episode much stronger. His stance of "you can't negotiate with the FARC" now makes even more sense.

Anonymous,  10:19 AM  

Uribe made a master move here

Greg Weeks 12:28 PM  

At best, Uribe is just back where he started but now he has a better excuse not to include Chavez. I do not see his stature or bargaining power any greater than before. Also, not getting hostages released is hardly a master move.

Anonymous,  1:37 PM  

This is a huge blow to the FARC and Chavez and at the same time gives a lot of credibility to the Colombian government. Only a week ago Uribe looked hopeless. Not any more. If that's not a master move, then I don't know what would be.

In any case, one thing is for sure. This wasn't a win win for Chavez.

Greg Weeks 2:28 PM  

Uribe looked hopeless? He's routinely received among the highest approval numbers in Latin America.

We can argue all day about the effect on Chavez, but the arguments about what a boon it is for Uribe are really stretching it.

boz 2:36 PM  

Not getting the hostages released is definitely a loss for Uribe.

As for the "coincidental" timing, as I understand it, one of the people ordered by the FARC to get Emmanuel out of the orphanage went to the authorities with the information because the FARC had threatened to kill his family if he failed.

Justin Delacour 2:48 PM  

He's routinely received among the highest approval numbers in Latin America.

I don't trust the polling figures in Colombia. I think Uribe has majority support in Colombia, but I suspect the government's ties with paramilitarism cause some respondents not to be entirely forthright about their views. In other words, it's not the kind of political environment in which it makes much sense to put total faith in the polls.

Anonymous,  3:01 PM  

Yes Delacour, and only Chavez can save Colombia.

Justin Delacour 3:06 PM  

Yes Delacour, and only Chavez can save Colombia.

Who said anything about "saving Colombia," genius?

Anonymous,  3:18 PM  

"I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that any other Latin American leader * would be more capable of negotiating a hostage release."

Delacour

*but my master Chavez

Justin Delacour 3:39 PM  

Uh, try writing something intelligent for once in your a life, anonymous. "Negotiating a hostage release" and "saving Colombia" are two very very different things.

And I still haven't seen any evidence to suggest that any other Latin American leader would be more capable of negotiating a hostage release. You certainly haven't supplied me with any such evidence.

But keep tryin', big fella.

Anonymous,  4:15 PM  

Ok, Ok, I will concede and agree with you:
-Chavez is the only one who can negotiate the releases.
-This is a win win for Chavez. No doubt at all.
-Oliver Stone is right in blaming Uribe for this. Uribe is a thug.
-The FARC will only negotiate with Chavez (the kid thing was a white lie). They are an honorable organization.
-A unilateral approach (Venezuela/FARC) has a lot of future.
-Chavez didn't do this for propaganda purposes, but for philanthropy. He really wanted to kiss that kid.
-Right, Chavez will not save Colombia, but definitely has a lot of traction as a diplomat. His global credibility is well, what can I say, he is a genius.

I hope this makes you happy.

Justin Delacour 4:46 PM  

-Oliver Stone is right in blaming Uribe for this. Uribe is a thug.

Stone may not be right in this particular case, but Uribe is a thug quite independently of what happened in the botched hostage release. Uribe has been a murderous, drug-connected thug his entire political career. Anybody who seriously looks at the evidence understands this.

Anonymous,  8:38 PM  

Of course, you are right. And this is a win win for Chavez...

Anonymous,  8:40 PM  

"Chavez and I are a pair of idiots."
Piedad Cordoba
an hour ago

Anonymous,  5:30 PM  

Can I just ask, what is Oliver Stone doing over there? Why is he involved in the situation?

Anonymous,  10:59 PM  

He was of Chavez's "humanitarian" delegation. His role? Propagandist

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