Thursday, January 10, 2008

Pushing free trade with Colombia

Check out The Hill for a business lobby perspective on free trade with Colombia. Naturally, business wants the FTA to be ratified. At the same time, however, lobbyists are getting nervous because they believe President Bush is soon going to try and ram it through Congress without getting prior approval from Democrats. They figure that if he does so, Democrats might not only reject it, but they might also refuse to pass any other FTAs.

If he goes ahead, that would set up a showdown between the Bush administration and Nancy Pelosi, who might feel some pressure to let the bill get to the floor or otherwise be labeled as turning her back on an ally in the “war on terror.” Obviously, she would get very strong opposite signals from her own base.

I would add that this would become a topic in the presidential race. In the primaries, I would guess that the contending Republicans would voice approval and Democrats would reject it (Clinton and Edwards are on the record as such, and from general statements I suspect Obama would do the same, though I can’t find specific statements to that effect). But after the primaries, and especially in a year of economic slowdown, this could hurt the Republican effort because of concerns about job loss (and general wariness about FTAs as well). I would like to think that Americans are also concerned about violence in Colombia, but I don’t really know.

6 comments:

Justin Delacour 7:15 PM  

Given Bill Clinton's support for Uribe, I wouldn't trust Hillary as far as I could throw her on this issue.

Anonymous,  7:23 PM  

This is Hillary's official statement. I find it straighforward
"I will oppose the pending trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama. The South Korean agreement does not create a level playing field for American carmakers. I am very concerned about the history of violence against trade unionists in Colombia. And as long as the head of Panama's National Assembly is a fugitive from justice in America, I cannot support that agreement. Accordingly, I will oppose the trade agreements with these countries."

Anonymous,  7:24 PM  

Interesting how she will be able to play double by working with her husband

Justin Delacour 7:57 PM  

I find it straighforward

Sure, and she could also be straightforwardly lying. That's what politicians sometimes do in the heat of battle.

I don't want a president who is being advised every night by her Uribe-backing husband.

Anonymous,  9:27 PM  

Well here is the thing. She is and will be accountable for that statement. If she is lying and then changes her position, public opinion will react and she will lose credibility (arguably the most important asset a politician could have).

So don't worry, she won't support the FTA with Colombia unless willing to pay the political price.

Anonymous,  6:04 PM  

Maybe (if Hillary is President) she will suddenly cry if it looks like the bill is about to pass, and then Senate Democrats will get scared away.

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