Bolivia's referendum is set
First, it’s important to see how approval correlates to a “yes” vote for Evo Morales. I am sure we’ll be seeing some polls soon. As I mentioned before, strong rural voter mobilization could make an important difference, especially since that population is less represented in approval rating polls anyway.
Second, in comments Miguel raised the point about Morales’ declining approval. For an August vote, will we see a continued decline in the next three months? Will that correlate to a greater “no” vote? This raises the question of whether he currently has an approval floor below which he likely won’t fall (or, regardless of such a floor, how fast he would continue to fall).
Third, knowing that a vote against Morales simply means another election (as opposed to him being kicked out of office forever) will people on the fence decide to vote against him just to send a message? One disincentive for that strategy is concern over whether such a loss would spark violence.
Fourth, how much will violence--by both sides--mark the next three months in anticipation of the vote?
2 comments:
Something else to consider:
If Evo Morales wins the referendum, will the opposition acknowledge the increased legitimacy of the Morales gov't, or will we be back to things as they are now?
If the opposition is really gung-ho, a Morales win might make them push for autonomy that much harder, as they cant remove him through the ballot box.
Some of that could depend upon how the prefects fare in their own referenda. It will also depend on whether the voting takes place within a climate of violence.
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