Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Brazil and recognition again

Just to make things more confusing, the Brazilian government has yet issued another statement on recognition for Honduras (here is the last one). Lula's spokesman via the New York Times:

''One thing is dealing with the fact that there were elections and another is recognizing the legitimacy of the elections,'' Baumbach told reporters. ''And for now, Brazil does not recognize that legitimacy.''

''The president's position is clear,'' Baumbach said. ''Brazil does not intend to recognize a government elected in a process that was organized by an illegitimate government.''

I see. Brazil will "deal" with the elections but not recognize the government they produced?

And, of course, we will have to see what "for now" really means.

11 comments:

vivaboliviacarajo,  10:24 AM  

for now... maybe until the news about true voter turnout makes the rounds, including the TSE and coup government's documented efforts to lie and disguise it.

for now... the Obama administration and its lackeys have accepted a bullshit number as fact and based their "policy" on that. Brazil wants to be a player, but a multilateral player, so it waits until maybe somebody in the US government decides to guide "policy" based on facts

for now... one last shred of HOPE?

boz 11:03 AM  

To me it looks like an internal policy debate within the Lula government, with various officials taking slightly different positions.

Dilma's comment over the weekend was particularly relevant because it could signal a split from Lula's foreign policy.

Justin Delacour 4:51 PM  

Dilma's comment over the weekend was particularly relevant because it could signal a split from Lula's foreign policy.

I know that divide-and-conquer is all you got left in your playbook, Boz, but I'm sorry to tell you that Dilma isn't gonna break ranks for the Washington establishment.

Bottom line is that you're on the wrong side of history now.

Greg Weeks 5:08 PM  

She already broke ranks (or deviated, or whatever you want to call it) enough that they needed a spokesman to clean things up--that is not uncommon in any administration. But another possibility is just confusion, because Lula's own statements have left wiggle room.

Anonymous,  7:43 PM  

Even in this article the Brazilians talk they won't recognize 'for now'. They are not idiots, they know what that means. If they wanted to close that particular door they would not have said 'for now'.

In the end it's clear what's going to happen. But as Moises Naim has written, Brazil wanted to be a world player but instead is coming across as an immature nation with a chip on its shoulder.

Still, they will eventually accept reality, if for no other reason to maintain the illusion that they have some influence in the region.

Justin Delacour 2:08 AM  

She already broke ranks...

Notice that the operative phrase was in the future tense. "Dilma isn't going to break ranks for the Washington establishment." In other words, regardless of whatever degree (if any) she might have diverted from the government line, I doubt she would do so again.

And whatever the purposes that lie behind the non-committal statement she made earlier, it should be abundantly clear that they are not Boz's purposes. I think that point needs to be made.

Justin Delacour 3:38 AM  

Even in this article the Brazilians talk they won't recognize 'for now'. They are not idiots, they know what that means. If they wanted to close that particular door they would not have said 'for now'.

Well, duhhhhh. Lula is a negotiator. Lula cuts deals. If Lula didn't leave the door open on Honduras, he wouldn't have anything to bargain with.

But since most people around here just don't seem to get it, let me try to explain how this game works.

Right now, the United States is blowing a huge opportunity with Brazil, and if the U.S. foreign policy establishment doesn't wise up, it's gonna create some real long-term problems for itself.

All the U.S. foreign policy establishment has to do is throw Lula a bone on Honduras. It's really friggin' simple. If the United States just put some diplomatic weight behind forming a truth commission in Honduras, or making Micheletti persona non grata in the United States, or supporting some prosecutions of crimes committed by the coup government, this little diplomatic tiff would be over. If you want Lula to recognize Lobo's election, just throw the man a bone. That's all these Washington schleps need to do.

Unfortunately, though, the State Department and the U.S. think tanks are so chock full of morons that they won't even throw Lula a little bone.

Wake up, Boz. Wake up, Obama. Wake up, all you schleps at the Inter-American Monologue. You don't slap Brazil in the face and then refuse to make ammends for it. We're not talking about little ol' Venezuela here. We're talking about Brazil, which is South America's largest economy and the fifth most populous country in the world.

Use your brains, people. The world will soon be ripe for the kind of counter-balancing alliance that the United States has never before encountered, so if you wanna do what's good for you and me and Lula too, just throw the man a bone. It really is that simple.

leftside 6:50 PM  

Justin, the US has made a conscious choice here to deviate from the regional concensus on Honduras (Brazil's position). On some level I think this is becoming about showing Brazil who is still the boss in the region. The US has applied the screws to its usual clients in the hopes of presenting the world with the idea of a divided region - and the US "realist" argument winning the day over the "idealist" notions beginning to rear their ugly head in this and many other cases...

Anonymous,  7:46 PM  

leftside,

There is no 'regional consensus'.

Panama, Costa Rica, Colombia and Peru all agree with the US. Others will follow.

The only way you can talk of a 'regional consensus' is if you define the region as 'countries that agree with me'.

Justin Delacour 7:58 PM  

On some level I think this is becoming about showing Brazil who is still the boss in the region.

Of course. That's totally what this is about. But the Washington establishment fails to recognize that, over the long term, hubris will be its downfall. Mark my words. If all Lula is saying is that the Washington establishment needs to throw him a little bone, he's not telling them that they're no longer the Mafia Don on the block. He's just telling the Mafia Don that he needs to treat the big dogs with a little respect.

It's not realism that is the problem here. The problem is hubris and a failure to foresee that, over the long term, there will be huge costs to bear for such hubris because the Washington Establishment isn't going to have enough power to sustain such a level of hubris for much longer.

By the way, classical realism is a much more honorable theoretical tradition than you may think. If you get a chance, you should read Edward Hallett Carr's Twenty Years' Crisis, which says more poignant things about the pitfalls of imperial hubris than any other book I've ever read.

Slave Revolt,  8:01 PM  

It is so fun to see who really are the boot-lockers for empire, and ant-democratic repression and thuggery.

Every year that goes by sees the US becoming more isolated on the world stage.

This coup has actually strengthened the left democratic tendency in the Americas. Capitalism/empire thought it would put a brown face on tired old, repressive policies--and all they are left with is shit on their face.

Losing prestige and power could have happened to a more deserving political tendency.

Suffer you putrid abbeders of repression.

Box has really distinguished himself as an unreliable source in this affair--but his still enjoys his mantle as the go to guy among the true believers in pathological imperialism.

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