Monday, February 29, 2016

Latin America Links

Every so often I try to highlight posts in blogs that I read:


Click away!

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Saturday, February 27, 2016

Odede and Posner's Find Me Unafraid

I read Kennedy Odede and Jessica Posner's Find Me Unafraid: Love, Loss, and Hope in an African Slum (2015). It's pretty hard not to be impressed at the way these two young people came together and built community projects (through an NGO they founded called Shining Hope for Communities) in the Kibera slum of Nairobi.

She was a Wesleyan student who visited Kenya and was stubborn enough to demand to live as other people did, rather than in comfort. He was a very poor but remarkably resourceful and dedicated member of his community. One sometimes jarring aspect of the book is that the writing moves long quickly, sometimes breezily, even as the events themselves are sometimes brutal: rape, decapitation, you name it. The book flies through events, though perhaps that is appropriate given their own desire not to let disasters stop them from helping people.

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Thursday, February 25, 2016

U.S.-Latin American Relations in the Campaign

Following up on yesterday's post about Ted Cruz's comments on the Panama Canal, check out this message (from the Foreign Relations of the United States series, see esp. pp. 102-103) the State Department sent to all diplomatic posts in the hemisphere after an OAS meeting.

—Panama Canal—The Latins, and the Panamanians in particular, were very satisfied with the evident will of the administration, as exemplified in your statement, the joint declaration and our approval of the resolution, to bring a Canal Treaty to a successful conclusion. But failure later, as you know, would severely damage our relations with the hemisphere.

Later (pp. 112-113) a memo was sent to Secretary of State Kissinger:

One reason is progress on important symbolic issues. The Cuban issue has been removed as a source of generalized controversy. A new Panama Canal Treaty seems conceivable. Another reason is that Latin American leaders have realized that constructive relations with the United States will not be facilitated by replacing inter-American organizations with purely Latin American organizations.

Sound familiar? The U.S. persists in a policy (in this case, the Panama Canal) that is very unpopular in Latin America and even prompts efforts to create organizations excluding the U.S. That was forty years, and one generation later the U.S. was facing exactly the same problem.

Current Cuba policy should be viewed in the same light as the canal 40 years ago, namely as a positive step that enhances U.S. security and improves hemispheric relations. Being obstinate is not good for security.

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Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Rubio and Cruz Need a U.S.-Latin America Class

Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have been saying that President Obama plans to give Guantánamo back to Cuba. This would be huge news if it were true. But it's not. What Obama is discussing, of course, is not using the facility anymore for housing prisoners. That simply means going back to the pre-9/11 norm, not all the way back to the Spanish-American War.

I hope this just means they don't understand the distinction, as opposed to simply making it up. But Cruz's comments are actually worse:

Four decades ago, Jimmy Carter gave away the Panama Canal. We built it, we paid for it, and then a feckless left-wing president gave it away to undermine this country. Well, Mr. President, you don't have the authority to give away vital military assets!

It's very hard to find anyone who thinks the United States lost anything by giving away the Panama Canal. Indeed, Henry Kissinger supported negotiations to do so. As he correctly pointed out:

“If these [Canal] negotiations fail, we will be beaten to death in every international forum and there will be riots all over Latin America.”

So it was in fact a smart move in security terms. It certainly didn't undermine anything, except the belief that the U.S. ought to somehow be in control of everything.

Update: I didn't realize Donald Trump had also weighed in. As you might expect, he makes even less sense.

He continued: "Maybe in our deal with Cuba, we get them to take it over and reimburse us, because we're probably paying rent. We're going to keep it open, but we're going to get the cost down, because that's ridiculous." 
In fact, the United States does not pay Cuba anything to operate the Guantanamo Bay base. Cuba leased the location to the United States in 1903, but after Fidel Castro took power, the Communist government of Cuba accepted the annual $4,085 payment just once. Afterward, it began a multi-decade stalemate, cutting off water to the base and refusing to cash the rent checks, which are written out by rote every year.

Oh well.

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The Future of the MAS in Bolivia

Telesur has a solid analysis of Evo Morales' failure to win the ability to run for another term, much of it based on an interview with Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network. The next presidential election won't be until 2019, so there is time for him and the MAS party to develop a long-term plan. It's better for Bolivian democracy (and the party itself) not to do so based on an individual.


In recent months, South America’s right-wing won electoral victories in Argentina and Venezuela, prompting Latin America’s leftist movement at large, including Evo Morales, to call for reflection on the socialist project. Bolivia’s No result could similarly present an opportunity for MAS to think seriously about the direction of the party and how to pass the torch to the next leader while deepening support for the legacy of Morales’ policies.

In recent months, South America’s right-wing won electoral victories in Argentina and Venezuela, prompting Latin America’s leftist movement at large, including Evo Morales, to call for reflection on the socialist project. Bolivia’s No result could similarly present an opportunity for MAS to think seriously about the direction of the party and how to pass the torch to the next leader while deepening support for the legacy of Morales’ policies.

For the time being, the fact that Morales cannot seek re-election remains the only certainty. How Bolivia’s ruling left-wing and opposition groups rise to the electoral and other political challenges at hand and shape the country’s political future remains to be seen.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Evo-Morales-Wont-Run-in-2019-But-MAS-Will-Continue-Fighting-20160221-0027.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/englishIn recent months, South America’s right-wing won electoral victories in Argentina and Venezuela, prompting Latin America’s leftist movement at large, including Evo Morales, to call for reflection on the socialist project. Bolivia’s No result could similarly present an opportunity for MAS to think seriously about the direction of the party and how to pass the torch to the next leader while deepening support for the legacy of Morales’ policies.
For the time being, the fact that Morales cannot seek re-election remains the only certainty. How Bolivia’s ruling left-wing and opposition groups rise to the electoral and other political challenges at hand and shape the country’s political future remains to be seen.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Evo-Morales-Wont-Run-in-2019-But-MAS-Will-Continue-Fighting-20160221-0027.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english
n recent months, South America’s right-wing won electoral victories in Argentina and Venezuela, prompting Latin America’s leftist movement at large, including Evo Morales, to call for reflection on the socialist project. Bolivia’s No result could similarly present an opportunity for MAS to think seriously about the direction of the party and how to pass the torch to the next leader while deepening support for the legacy of Morales’ policies.

For the time being, the fact that Morales cannot seek re-election remains the only certainty. How Bolivia’s ruling left-wing and opposition groups rise to the electoral and other political challenges at hand and shape the country’s political future remains to be seen.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Evo-Morales-Wont-Run-in-2019-But-MAS-Will-Continue-Fighting-20160221-0027.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english
In recent months, South America’s right-wing won electoral victories in Argentina and Venezuela, prompting Latin America’s leftist movement at large, including Evo Morales, to call for reflection on the socialist project. Bolivia’s No result could similarly present an opportunity for MAS to think seriously about the direction of the party and how to pass the torch to the next leader while deepening support for the legacy of Morales’ policies.

For the time being, the fact that Morales cannot seek re-election remains the only certainty. How Bolivia’s ruling left-wing and opposition groups rise to the electoral and other political challenges at hand and shape the country’s political future remains to be seen.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Evo-Morales-Wont-Run-in-2019-But-MAS-Will-Continue-Fighting-20160221-0027.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english
In recent months, South America’s right-wing won electoral victories in Argentina and Venezuela, prompting Latin America’s leftist movement at large, including Evo Morales, to call for reflection on the socialist project. Bolivia’s No result could similarly present an opportunity for MAS to think seriously about the direction of the party and how to pass the torch to the next leader while deepening support for the legacy of Morales’ policies.

For the time being, the fact that Morales cannot seek re-election remains the only certainty. How Bolivia’s ruling left-wing and opposition groups rise to the electoral and other political challenges at hand and shape the country’s political future remains to be seen.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Evo-Morales-Wont-Run-in-2019-But-MAS-Will-Continue-Fighting-20160221-0027.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english
n recent months, South America’s right-wing won electoral victories in Argentina and Venezuela, prompting Latin America’s leftist movement at large, including Evo Morales, to call for reflection on the socialist project. Bolivia’s No result could similarly present an opportunity for MAS to think seriously about the direction of the party and how to pass the torch to the next leader while deepening support for the legacy of Morales’ policies.

For the time being, the fact that Morales cannot seek re-election remains the only certainty. How Bolivia’s ruling left-wing and opposition groups rise to the electoral and other political challenges at hand and shape the country’s political future remains to be seen.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Evo-Morales-Wont-Run-in-2019-But-MAS-Will-Continue-Fighting-20160221-0027.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english
This follows on Miguel Centellas' great analysis at Latin America Goes Global on the future of the MAS.

Again, one should be skeptical about reading too much into municipal-level analysis. But these data suggest an interesting problem on the horizon for Morales and his MAS party. The evidence suggests a significant drop in support among Aymara communities in the span between the 2009/2010 and 2014/2015 elections. The drop is particularly surprising given the government’s emphasis on Aymara symbolism (for example, with the elaborate presidential inaugural ceremonies held at Tiahuanaco). These results also show that there may not be link between support for MAS and inequality, indicating that the MAS’s class-based political agenda and rhetoric may produce diminishing returns, especially as socioeconomic differences become less salient. At the same time, in recent years, Evo Morales and his MAS party have expanded their support within the middle classes, offsetting declining support among the indigenous and poor.

In other words, the MAS needs to work for continued support, and that will be even more pronounced as its charismatic leader is required to step aside.

So the MAS has time, and there is no crisis, but the process of creating a strong institutional base needs to start immediately.

In recent months, South America’s right-wing won electoral victories in Argentina and Venezuela, prompting Latin America’s leftist movement at large, including Evo Morales, to call for reflection on the socialist project. Bolivia’s No result could similarly present an opportunity for MAS to think seriously about the direction of the party and how to pass the torch to the next leader while deepening support for the legacy of Morales’ policies.

For the time being, the fact that Morales cannot seek re-election remains the only certainty. How Bolivia’s ruling left-wing and opposition groups rise to the electoral and other political challenges at hand and shape the country’s political future remains to be seen.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Evo-Morales-Wont-Run-in-2019-But-MAS-Will-Continue-Fighting-20160221-0027.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english

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Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Framing Evo Morales' Loss

Of course, lots of attention on the fact that it appears Evo Morales lost his bid to run for a fourth term. Yesterday I was at a retreat all day, which meant I really only had time to look at headlines. Many of these are quite misleading, and it turns out that persists even within the articles:

Bolivia’s president Evo Morales has refused to accept defeat after the initial results of a national referendum which would allow him to stand for a fourth term suggested that he has suffered his biggest electoral setback in 10 years.

Speaking to journalists on Monday, Morales said he would accept the result either way, but the president cautioned that the result was still uncertain, apparently pinning his hopes on a late surge of support in rural areas.


From reading headlines, or even a first paragraph, you get a clear impression that Evo Morales is contesting the results. This leads to speculation, a la Venezuela, that he might somehow invalidate them. Thus far, though, all we see is that he is waiting to get all the results in, particularly becaue rural areas are more supportive. Maybe he will wait in vain, but that's not particularly controversial. And at least for now it is not what I would call "refusing to accept defeat."



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Friday, February 19, 2016

Indian Investment in Latin America

Hari Seshasayee has an interesting article at Americas Quarterly on Indian investment in Latin America, especially compared to Chinese. Here is one contrast:

However, perhaps most indicative of India’s growing stake in Latin America is the country’s diverse range of investments in the region. Only 18 percent of India’s investments in LAC are focused on raw material extraction, compared to 57 percent for China — of particular importance as the drop in global commodity prices makes trade in natural resources less valuable. And while China’s total investments in LAC account for a whopping $50 billion, eclipsing India’s $20 billion, the two countries were evenly matched in the total percentage of greenfield investments in the region from Asian countries between 2003 and 2011, at 14 percent each.

The point about extraction is an important one. For all the talk of Chinese expansion, there will be more fruitful collaboration when investments aren't just focused on primary products. I hope this pattern of India prioritizing new types of productive investments continues.

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Thursday, February 18, 2016

Trump Responds to the Pope by Attacking Mexico

So the Pope questioned Donald Trump's Christianity, which prompted Trump to criticize Mexico and undocumented immigrants.

If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President because this would not have happened. ISIS would have been eradicated unlike what is happening now with our all talk, no action politicians.  
The Mexican government and its leadership has made many disparaging remarks about me to the Pope, because they want to continue to rip off the United States, both on trade and at the border, and they understand I am totally wise to them. The Pope only heard one side of the story - he didn’t see the crime, the drug trafficking and the negative economic impact the current policies have on the United States. He doesn’t see how Mexican leadership is outsmarting President Obama and our leadership in every aspect of negotiation,
For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful. I am proud to be a Christian and as President I will not allow Christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened, unlike what is happening now, with our current President. No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man’s religion or faith. They are using the Pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so, especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so rampant.

Does all that make sense to you? Me neither. Incidentally, any Mexican making disparaging remarks is doing so because Trump is racist and anti-Mexican. I have no idea what negotiation he's talking about. And I am not sure how the Pope is Mexico's pawn. But it all connects in Trump's head somehow. Oh, and ISIS is in there too. Somehow.

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Obama Visiting Cuba

President Obama will be visiting Cuba within just a few weeks. Although this announcement had been hinted at for months, it's still remarkable given the history of bilateral relations and the fact that the last U.S. president to do so was Calvin Coolidge.

This ties into what I've framed as building leverage. Obama is pressing Cuba to respond and in fact making it defensive (where it feels compelled to explain the response) in a way that has never occurred before.

More importantly, Obama is signalling to the Castro successors that the U.S. is ready and willing to talk. That could definitely yield benefits down the road, and in fact will be the core of whatever "legacy" this leaves.

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Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Is Venezuela a Trustworthy OPEC Partner?

OPEC announced a freeze in oil production to get prices back up. A Bloomberg reporter asks about the trust problem. More specifically for this blog, Venezuela is the worst off as a result of dropping oil prices and needs revenue badly.

So until OPEC members are all on an equal economic footing, don't expect "trust" to be a word that has much meaning when new production agreements are unveiled.

There is a strong incentive for PDVSA not to freeze production and instead to reap the benefits of higher prices. Someone more knowledgeable than me would need to explain how production is overseen.

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Minors Deported From Mexico

Boz has a hardbreaking story about sitting next to a Honduran boy on a flight from Mexico City to San Pedro Sula. The boy was being deported, and wanted to get to his parents in New York City.

I asked the question in the best way I could think of, in a way without suggesting the answer I both expected and feared. "David, are you going to be returning to school when you get back to Honduras." 
There was no hesitation in his response, "No, I'll be coming back to Mexico.” Just like I have heard from so many others in Central America in recent years, deportation wasn’t going to deter him. He’d be turning right back around to try again.

Go ahead and read the whole thing.

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Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Metro Cost in Latin America

The Santiago metro is the most expensive subway in Latin America. At 740 pesos it is the only one over a dollar (current exchange is about 709 pesos to the dollar).




This has obvious socio-economic implications because the cost of transport cuts into wages, and people may have to take multiple sources of public transportation (metro, bus, and/or colectivo, which is like a group taxi). I would guess Santiago is more expensive primarily because it is subsidized less. On the other hand, Mexico City's highly subsidized system is quite cheap but faces serious problems of infrastructure neglect.

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Monday, February 15, 2016

Supporting the Peace Deal in Colombia

Stephanie White is a political science major and student from last semester's Latin American Politics class. She just published an op-ed in the student section of Latin America Goes Global how it's critical for Juan Manuel Santos to convince his supporters to support the peace deal with the FARC. Nice job, Stephanie!



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Saturday, February 13, 2016

Femicide in Latin America

Insight Crime takes a look at femicide in Latin America, which is the highest in the world.

A recent report by a number of international organizations (pdf) revealed that seven out of the ten countries with the highest female murder rate in the world are in Latin America. El Salvador heads the list with a rate of 8.9 homicides per 100,000 women in 2012, followed by Colombia with 6.3, Guatemala with 6.2, Russia with 5.3 and Brazil with 4.8. Mexico and Suriname are also in the top ten.


The article explores several possible reasons, such as organized crime. The problem, however, is that organized crime is serious in many different parts of the world. So what is constant and what is varying? Human trafficking is likely a variable, especially when you connect it to migration toward the United States.

More broadly, take a look at the table on p. 27 with the international statistics. Uruguay is fairly high on the list, which surprised me. Honduras is not on the list at all, and given its overall homicide rate it must be high. Then there are countries like Kuwait and Tunisia that report a 0% rate, which strains credulity.


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Friday, February 12, 2016

Hillary Clinton and Henry Kissinger

The New York Times has a piece on Hillary Clinton's praise of Henry Kissinger. It is not easy to find anything to positive to say about Kissinger's impact on Latin America. Maybe his support for the Panama Canal. But he was an important enabler of atrocious human rights abuses in places like Argentina, where a murderous regime gratefully accepted his green light to proceed with their attacks on "subversives."

Nonetheless, I wonder how many other people know, or care.


The friendship came back to haunt her in the Democratic presidential debate on Thursday night, when Senator Bernie Sanders pointedly questioned Mrs. Clinton’s foreign policy judgment, saying President Richard M. Nixon’s secretary of state had enabled genocide in Cambodia under Pol Pot.
 “I’m proud to say Henry Kissinger is not my friend,” Mr. Sanders said.


I just don't see this haunting her. How many people will vote in the primaries based on Nixon/Ford foreign policy?  Being a BFF of Henry Kissinger is indeed nothing to be proud of, but neither is it a salient political issue these days.

I also wonder the following: how many Americans know who Pol Pot is? I am pretty darn sure they don't know who Jorge Rafael Videla is.

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China's Role in Latin America

It's almost as if Americans need to feel some sort of threat in Latin America. Losing the Soviet Union left a void. Iran is a popular choice, of course, but so is China. So we have this from a CNN Money reporter:


China and Latin America fit well together despite their recent economic turmoil. China needs raw materials like iron, oil, soy and all types of food. Latin America has lots of that. 
China also uses its investment in Latin America as a source of jobs for Chinese workers. Many of the infrastructure projects in Latin America that China finances come with a caveat: Chinese workers get the job.
But then you also have this, from Evan Ellis:

China’s relationship with the region is arguably now entering a new phase, marked by diminished expectations and greater pragmatism on both sides. The deceleration of China’s GDP growth to 6.8%, and perhaps less, has contributed to falling international commodity prices, imposing costs felt particularly by those states which have most benefited from exporting petroleum, mining and agriculture products to China. Weakening industrial demand in China may lead its petroleum and mining companies to postpone programmed investments in Latin America, the Caribbean and elsewhere, where the terms of their concessions allow them to do so. 
...
Falling revenues from exports to China, fewer Chinese petroleum and mining investments, and greater competition from Chinese product exporters and construction companies will increase the degree to which China is seen as a competitor, more than a source of opportunity, in Latin America and the Caribbean.

So we have two very different appraisals of the same phenomenon. On the one hand, you have voracious China trying to elbow the U.S. out and provide employment for Chinese workers. On the other, you have a pragmatic relationship that has hit significant snags of various types.

The first argument inevitably includes discussion of how the U.S. is losing influence, and readers of this blog know that I disagree with that. But alarmist arguments are sexier and get more hits.

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Wednesday, February 10, 2016

The Left and the Venezuelan Crisis

On Twitter Patrick Iber pointed out this op-ed about Venezuela by Anthropologist Claudio Lomnitz, which includes a call for the left to reflect on its enthusiasm for Chavismo.


El segundo pendiente, menos urgente, pero aun así relevante, es la necesidad de una reflexión crítica del caso desde la izquierda internacional, que apoyó con tanto entusiasmo a Hugo Chávez, un caudillo al que se le atribuyeron propiedades taumatúrgicas y hasta divinas, pero cuya magia dependió al final de los altísimos precios de petróleo que lo beneficiaron, y de la quiebra moral del sistema de partidos políticos que precedió su ascenso al poder. 

In many ways, though, death has deflected a lot of criticism from Chávez. Lomnitz specifically says that we can't lay blame entirely at the feet of Nicolás Maduro, but anecdotally that's often what I read. The devout can always claim that Chávez would've handled it better. Maduro himself actually reinforces that by continuing to lionize Chávez desperately, blaming "economic war" instead. It's not oil prices, it's hoarding.

The other response is to argue that perhaps Chávez, but especially Maduro, failed to take the country in a firm socialist direction when they should've. In other words, you don't even talk about oil prices but rather the need to cut capitalism off entirely. Both that and the hoarding argument require avoiding the oil question entirely.

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Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Zika: A Political Demography Conspiracy

A new conspiracy theory coming from Venezuela is that the Zika virus was created to hurt the Global South. And it includes political demography:

En el Sur desde 2010 y hasta 2040 se estará desarrollando el fenómeno social del Bono Demográfico. Es decir, en un crecimiento constante, la población en edad de trabajar y teóricamente saludable, se hará mayor que la pasiva (infantil y tercera edad), adquiriendo el Sur un potencial productivo superior al resto del mundo.

The basic thrust is that the Zika virus is fake and is just a plot to get Latin Americans to have fewer children. That would prevent the region from achieving its "demographic bonus."

I won't bother with the absurdity of the basic charge. I give them credit for at least thinking about political demography, but the logic is problematic. Having a lot of young people is often not correlated with "superior production." In Mexico, for example, it helped prompt emigration. In less developed economies, there is a problem of having too many young people and too few jobs.

In a paper we presented at last year's SECOLAS meeting and are still working on, my dad and I argue that Venezuela's very young population has put a terrible strain on the government's socialist project. It's very hard to redistribute resources to a growing population base.

We've also been writing an op-ed about the potential long-term demographic repercussions of a demographic dent, whereby government warnings prompt shifts that would be felt years later. This isn't about a "bonus" or production, though, and would not necessarily be disastrous if handled well.




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Saturday, February 06, 2016

LGBTQ Rights in Latin America

A student (and political science major) from last semester's Latin American Politics class, Mackenzie Hardin, has an op-ed on LGBTQ rights in Latin America Goes Global's student section. It's a very cool part of the site that gives students some voice. I had all my students write an op-ed, and chose a couple that I thought were really worth submitting for consideration.




Equality always comes at a high price. But discrimination reaps a higher cost, like the 250 humans killed in Brazil for no reason other than their sexual orientation or sexuality. Those shocking, raw numbers obscure the daily personal and economic suffering of many others and their family members. The past advances have helped to grant basic rights of marriage, health care, and a security to many in the LGBTQ community of Latin America, but not all. Though long overdue, freedom and equality is on the march, legally, socially and economically… but it will be a long march indeed.



Check it out!

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Friday, February 05, 2016

U.S. Security Policy in Latin America

Brian Fonseca and Alex Crowther have an op-ed in Latin America Goes Global on U.S. security policy in Latin America. It argues to shift policy focus away from the narrowly defined issues such as drugs and move instead toward the security of the individual. As they note, people are not feeling more secure in much of Latin America.

It is also time for the U.S. and its partners to formally revisit and update the 2003 Declaration on Security in the Americas. Some progress has been made in the implementation of the Declaration, but according to the Department of State, there are still several member countries lagging behind in implementation. A brief survey of recent activities associated with the Organization of American States (OAS) Committee on Hemispheric Security illustrates a declining operational tempo over the last five years or so. Still, much of the Declaration’s initial charter remains incredibly relevant to the broader human security agenda, and emerging concerns over cyber threats and climate change, for example, warrant a revisit of the converging security challenges facing the region. Convening members states and the appropriate authorities to re-affirm and update the Declaration will serve to re-legitimate hemispheric commitment to the topic and jumpstart cooperation around the issue.


Not a bad idea. I also like the idea of making sure we keep issues like climate change more squarely in our sights in terms of security. That alone can threaten more people than the higher profile problems.

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Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Sean Penn Killed Hugo Chávez!

Well, no, but that's what conspiracy theories look like in Venezuela. Via Hugo Pérez Hernáiz:

Yesterday journalist Miguel Salazar, author of the popular column Las Verdades de Miguel, proposed a theory which rapidly became viral in social media: Salazar is suspicious of the motives actor Sean Penn and model Naomi Campbell might have had for their contacts with president Chávez. 

Salazar suggests there is a need to look into “the ease with which potential ‘infiltrators’ (infiltrados) could get close to Chávez.” He has no evidence that Penn or Campbell could have poisoned Chavez, but reminds his readers that the actor recently made headlines by “handing over” Mexican drug capo El Chapo to the authorities. Whereas the Campbell becomes a suspect for Salazar because “she is not known to have had any other political public appearances different form her meeting with Chávez in 2007.” Salazar finishes his note with a comparison between Campbell and the WWI famous spy Mata Hari.

This also reminded me of how the electoral losses in Venezuela especially but also Argentina have thrown the left off. There is a lot of finger-pointing going on. Now Sean Penn, who has framed himself as the champion of the Latin American left and is an ardent critic of U.S. policy, is also in the cross-hairs. As soon as we learned for sure that Chávez had cancer, people were blaming the CIA for killing him (not to mention possibly somehow giving Lula and others cancer) which is almost a mainstay of conspiracy theories. Blaming someone who is trying--however badly--to be on your side is new.

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Monday, February 01, 2016

Conservative Recommendations to Congress

Ana Quintana at the Heritage Foundation has an op-ed essentially telling Congress to stop being reasonable and bring back a security obsession. Therefore Congress should sabotage Cuba negotiations and also tell Juan Manuel Santos that he needs to change his negotiating strategy. Further, since mano dura policies have worked so well to reduce human rights abuses in Central America, we need to double down on them and get rid of all the social stuff. Oddly enough, the Venezuela recommendations were only to consult more with the OAS, not acknowledging that the Obama administration has already been slapping down sanctions.

This is an extreme view but you see bits of this sort of thing in the U.S. presidential campaign. Given how poorly security-first policies have fared in achieving U.S. policy goals (e.g. regime change in Cuba, reduced narcotics flow, reduced human rights abuses, etc.) it is discouraging to see their persistence.

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